China will still be poor by 2030
Nov 30th, 2009 | By Chris | Category: Random Shanghai stuff...If we get past the end of the world in 2012 futurist George Magnus writes in the Times that China will still be a long way off income parity with the West even by 2030.
Quote:
No one can dispute, or regard as unwelcome, China’s economic and political emergence. That it will continue to catch the West is beyond doubt.
However, it will take a generation, rather than a decade or two, if at all, to cross the barriers of financial instability, structural change, inadequate institutions, ageing and the highest levels of technological innovation.
By 2030, China will still be a relatively poor country and we cannot know how, or even if, her external and internal contradictions will be resolved, or what the social consequences might be.
A shift in global power is occurring glacially, but is a long way short of the kind that occupies the feverish commentary around the world. Best to keep taking the tablets.
